Source: Häsler, Georg & Jochem, Cian. (2024). “Downing of French Rafale during Indian attack on Pakistan offers lessons for West.” Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ).
The Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ) is a prestigious Swiss daily newspaper published in Zürich. Founded in 1780 as the Zürcher Zeitung, it is one of the oldest and most respected newspapers in the world, known for its high-quality journalism, in-depth analysis, and editorial independence. The NZZ covers politics, economics, culture, and international affairs with a focus on neutrality and objectivity, making it a key source of information for readers in Switzerland and beyond.
India’s Failed Airstrike and the Loss of a Rafale
In a significant military setback for India, at least one French-built Rafale fighter jet was reportedly shot down by a Chinese made Pakistan Air Force Chengdu J-10 “Mighty Dragon” during an Indian Air Force (IAF) operation against Pakistan last week. The incident, detailed in a recent NZZ report by Georg Häsler and Cian Jochem, raises critical questions about modern air combat, the effectiveness of Western-made jets, and the growing influence of Chinese military technology.
Operation “Sindoor”: A Costly Failure?
India’s mission, codenamed “Sindoor,” targeted alleged terrorist training camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir in retaliation for an April attack that killed over two dozen tourists. However, instead of a swift, casualty-free strike—akin to U.S. or Israeli operations—the IAF faced fierce resistance from Pakistan’s integrated air defenses, which include Chinese-made systems.
- Pakistan claims to have downed three Rafales and two Soviet-era jets, though India denies these losses.
- Open-source evidence (wreckage photos, missile remnants) suggests at least one Rafale was destroyed by a PL-15E missile, fired from a J-10.
- The incident shook investor confidence, causing Dassault Aviation’s (Rafale’s manufacturer) shares to drop, while shares of China’s Chengdu Aerospace rose.
Why This Matters for Europe
The Rafale is not just another fighter jet—it is the backbone of France’s nuclear deterrent and has been proposed by President Emmanuel Macron as a potential European nuclear umbrella if the U.S. withdraws from NATO.
- Technical parity? Both the Rafale and J-10 are 4.5-generation fighters, but the Rafale’s advanced sensor fusion and multirole capabilities were expected to give it an edge.
- Operational failures? India may have underestimated Pakistan’s defenses, which include Chinese radars, real-time intel sharing, and layered air defense systems.
- A warning for NATO: If a Rafale can be downed by a Chinese-made jet, how would European air forces fare against Russian or Chinese stealth fighters and advanced missiles?
Key Lessons for the West
- Conventional air warfare is not obsolete – Drones and smart weapons alone can’t replace manned fighters in high-intensity conflicts.
- China’s military tech is catching up fast – Pakistan’s success highlights the effectiveness of Chinese missiles, radars, and fighter jets, which Russia may also be using.
- The F-35 remains crucial – With superior stealth and sensor fusion, the U.S.-made F-35 is still Europe’s best bet against advanced adversaries.
- Alliances matter – India’s “go-it-alone” approach failed; Australia’s model (F-35s + U.S. collaboration) may be the way forward.
Broader Implications
- For Europe: The Rafale’s vulnerability questions its suitability in high-intensity conflicts against peer adversaries (China/Russia). Europe may need to accelerate FCAS/SCAF (6th-gen fighter programs) and deepen NATO integration.
- For India: The incident exposes gaps in IAF’s operational planning and over-reliance on tech superiority, urging reforms in joint warfare doctrine.
- For China/Pakistan: The successful interception boosts the credibility of Chinese-made systems, potentially expanding their export market.
What’s Next?
The downing of the Rafale serves as a wake-up call for Europe:
- Accelerate next-gen fighter programs (like FCAS/SCAF).
- Strengthen NATO and U.S. partnerships to counter China and Russia.
- Re-evaluate Rafale’s role in high-threat environments.
For now, the message is clear: Even the most advanced jets are vulnerable without proper strategy, coordination, and real-time intel.
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